Industry

US Spirits: Another strong NABCA data in June

July 27, 2012
UBS
Strong June spirits sales of +7.0% y/y Excluding Washington, NABCA reported strong volume growth in June with  +3.7% y/y (+3.6% last 12 months y/y) despite a tough +9.1% comp last year. Price/mix in June was solid at +3.3% in line with last 12 months of +3.5%. Extra selling days in Pennsylvania were offset by less trading days in Michigan. On an adjusted basis, June volume and value growth were +3.6% and +7.1% respectively.

Diageo lost some share, but we expect price/mix growth ahead of market Diageo unadjusted June volumes grew +1.1% y/y, losing some share (LTM +1.5% y/y). However, we believe Diageo has higher price/mix growth than the rest of the market as illustrated by Nielsen data. Campari's June volumes grew +3.7% y/y, in line with LTM and the US spirits market.

Pernod lost share partly offset by growth in Jameson Pernod unadjusted June volumes grew +2.1% (LTM +1.1% y/y). Pernod benefits from strong Irish whiskey growth (Jameson), but overall lost some volume share. We understand Pernod is also leading on price/mix versus the rest of the market. Remy's portfolio continued to outperform with +11.1% volume growth in June (vs. LTM +8.9% y/y). This performance includes partner brands.

We estimate 2012 US spirits volume and value growth of 3.5% and 5.5% y/y.